Washington Park West Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Washington Park West sits immediately west of Washington Park, between South Downing Street and South Logan. A walkable grid of bungalows and pre-war duplexes anchored by the South Pearl Street commercial strip on its eastern edge.
September 2026 was a genuinely quiet month in Washington Park West. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the signal count was zero across all types, spikes, drops, sustained shifts, and rare events alike.
The 12-month picture is mixed but not alarming. Aggravated assault is up 57.1% against the prior year, 11 incidents vs. 7, a meaningful percentage shift on a small base. Property crime is broadly lower: other larceny is down 14.9% (74 vs. 87), motor vehicle theft down 14.3% (36 vs. 42), and vandalism down 11.3% (47 vs. 53). Theft from vehicle edged up 6.1% (87 vs. 82) and burglary held roughly flat at 54 vs. 57. None of those moves were large enough this month to register as a notable shift.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Washington Park West compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Marston
74 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Washington Park West's 74.
Open page →City Park
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Washington Park West's 74.
Open page →Cole
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Washington Park West's 74.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Washington Park West, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.