Goldsmith Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Goldsmith is a southeast Denver neighborhood between Hampden Avenue and Yale Avenue, west of Interstate 25. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential, with the Denver Tech Center office cluster immediately to the south.
June 2026 produced a single signal in Goldsmith: one category moved, and it moved downward. Aggravated assault is the lone tracked signal this month, with everything else — robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism — within range and generating no anomalies.
Aggravated assault's 12-month total stands at 19 incidents, down from 31 in the prior 12 months, a 38.7% decline against a baseline that had been running closer to 28 incidents annually. The drop is the dominant story because it's the only story; the remaining categories are quiet, though several of them — vandalism up 35.1%, other larceny up 33.3%, robbery up 44.4% over their prior 12-month totals — bear watching in coming briefings even without crossing an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 33% below the 28 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Goldsmith compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Lowry Field
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Goldsmith's 19.
Open page →Overland
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Goldsmith's 19.
Open page →Whittier
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Goldsmith's 19.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Goldsmith, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.