Goldsmith Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Goldsmith is a southeast Denver neighborhood between Hampden Avenue and Yale Avenue, west of Interstate 25. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential, with the Denver Tech Center office cluster immediately to the south.
Two categories ran below trend in Goldsmith this April — both drops, no spikes, no rare events. The shape is quietly downward, with the movement concentrated in property crime and violent crime simultaneously.
Aggravated assault and burglary are the two below-trend signals. Aggravated assault carries the stronger move: 19 incidents over the current 12 months against 31 in the prior year, down 38.7%. Burglary followed a similar direction, falling 20.0% year-over-year — 32 incidents vs. 40. Everything else in Goldsmith this month came in within its normal range.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 32% below the 28 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 32 incidents — about 37% below the 51 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Goldsmith compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Bear Valley
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Goldsmith's 19.
Open page →Overland
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Goldsmith's 19.
Open page →Virginia Village
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Goldsmith's 19.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Goldsmith, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.