Harvey Park South Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Harvey Park South sits immediately south of Harvey Park, between West Hampden Avenue and West Yale. Predominantly mid-century residential single-family with a slightly more suburban grain than its northern neighbor.
August 2026 was a quiet month for Harvey Park South. No tracked category crossed the anomaly threshold, and the signal count came in at zero across all types, spikes, drops, sustained shifts, and rare events alike.
The 12-month volume figures show where the longer structural picture sits: burglary is down 35.0% year-over-year (26 incidents vs. 40 in the prior 12 months), theft from vehicle is down 21.0% (49 vs. 62), and aggravated assault is down 25.0% (18 vs. 24). Against that, other larceny is up 37.7% over the same window (73 vs. 53) and robbery has risen from 5 to 8 incidents, a 60.0% year-over-year increase on a small base. Neither of those upward moves triggered a signal this month, but both are worth watching as the trailing 12-month window rolls forward.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Harvey Park South compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Cole
71 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Harvey Park South's 73.
Open page →Marston
75 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Harvey Park South's 73.
Open page →Ruby Hill
71 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Harvey Park South's 73.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Harvey Park South, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.