Harvey Park South Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Harvey Park South sits immediately south of Harvey Park, between West Hampden Avenue and West Yale. Predominantly mid-century residential single-family with a slightly more suburban grain than its northern neighbor.
June 2026 produced a single signal in Harvey Park South: aggravated assault ran below its multi-year trend. Every other tracked category — burglary, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, robbery — stayed within normal range for the month.
The aggravated assault drop has 12-month weight behind it. The trailing 12-month total is 16 incidents against a prior-year total of 26, a 38.5% reduction year-over-year and well below the multi-year baseline of roughly 24 incidents annually. Burglary also shows a meaningful 12-month decline — 31 incidents against 42 the prior year, down 26.2% — though it did not cross the signal threshold this month. Other larceny and robbery both ticked upward on a 12-month basis, at 22.4% and 33.3% respectively, but neither produced a signal.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 16 incidents — about 34% below the 24 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Harvey Park South compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Chaffee Park
17 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Harvey Park South's 16.
Open page →Sloan Lake
15 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Harvey Park South's 16.
Open page →South Park Hill
17 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Harvey Park South's 16.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Harvey Park South, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.