North Capitol Hill Crime Rate Trends — Denver
North Capitol Hill (often shortened to Uptown) is a dense urban neighborhood immediately north of the State Capitol, between Broadway and Downing Street. Pre-war apartment buildings dominate around East 17th Avenue's restaurant strip, with the St. Joseph's Hospital campus anchoring the south edge.
North Capitol Hill recorded two signals in April 2026 — one spike and one sustained structural shift — against an otherwise quiet month across the seven tracked categories. The month's shape is narrow: most categories stayed within range, while other larceny and burglary each moved in opposite directions.
Burglary is down 37.6% over the trailing 12 months (68 incidents vs. 109 in the prior year), a sustained shift that has been building across multiple periods rather than a single quiet month. Other larceny is the lead signal — 233 incidents in the current 12 months against a baseline of 182.88, the highest volume of any tracked category in the neighborhood this period. Theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, and aggravated assault all held close to prior-year levels, none moving enough to register.
Notable signals 1
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 233 incidents — about 27% above the 183 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 68, down 38% from 109 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How North Capitol Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Speer
231 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below North Capitol Hill's 233.
Open page →Lincoln Park
239 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above North Capitol Hill's 233.
Open page →Baker
247 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above North Capitol Hill's 233.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When North Capitol Hill has spiked other larceny historically (15 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 86.7% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 15 | 86.7% |
| Robbery | 3 | — too few |
Each row shows North Capitol Hill's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for North Capitol Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.