North Capitol Hill Crime Rate Trends — Denver
North Capitol Hill (often shortened to Uptown) is a dense urban neighborhood immediately north of the State Capitol, between Broadway and Downing Street. Pre-war apartment buildings dominate around East 17th Avenue's restaurant strip, with the St. Joseph's Hospital campus anchoring the south edge.
August 2026 was a genuinely quiet month for North Capitol Hill. No tracked category crossed any anomaly threshold, and the signal count was zero across all types, spikes, drops, sustained shifts, and rare events alike. The month offers no fresh directional news.
The 12-month trend lines tell the more meaningful story. Aggravated assault is down 28.9% year-over-year, 59 incidents against 83 in the prior year, and burglary is down 29.0%, 76 against 107. Robbery has also declined, 32 incidents against 39, a drop of 17.9%. Against those broad property and violent crime reductions, other larceny and theft from vehicle are essentially flat, up 5.9% and 2.3% respectively, the only categories running above prior-year pace, and neither by a margin that crossed into notable territory this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How North Capitol Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Baker
229 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below North Capitol Hill's 233.
Open page →Lincoln Park
225 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below North Capitol Hill's 233.
Open page →Speer
221 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below North Capitol Hill's 233.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for North Capitol Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.