Baker Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Baker is an inner-ring neighborhood immediately south of Lincoln Park, organized around South Broadway between West 6th Avenue and West Alameda. The South Broadway commercial corridor is one of Denver's densest small-business strips, and the side streets are lined with late-1800s and early-1900s working-class Victorians.
September 2026 produced a single notable signal in Baker: motor vehicle theft running well below its multi-year pace. One category moved, one direction, and everything else held within its usual range.
Motor vehicle theft stands at 72 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down from 85 in the prior year, a 15.3% decline. Theft from vehicle also fell sharply over the same 12-month window, down 25.1% to 128 incidents from 171. Aggravated assault is the one category moving the other way, up 35.7% to 38 incidents against 28 in the prior year, a gap worth watching even at relatively low counts.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 72 incidents — about 56% below the 162 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Baker compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Northeast Park Hill
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Baker's 72.
Open page →Washington Virginia Vale
74 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Baker's 72.
Open page →Bear Valley
67 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Baker's 72.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Baker, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.