Baker Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Baker is an inner-ring neighborhood immediately south of Lincoln Park, organized around South Broadway between West 6th Avenue and West Alameda. The South Broadway commercial corridor is one of Denver's densest small-business strips, and the side streets are lined with late-1800s and early-1900s working-class Victorians.
Two signals surfaced in Baker this April — one one-month drop and one sustained structural shift, both in the same category. That's a narrow month: motor vehicle theft is doing all the work, and the rest of the tracked categories moved without crossing a threshold.
Motor vehicle theft accounts for both signals. The trailing 12-month total is 71 incidents against a baseline mean of 173.1 — down 40.8% from the prior 12-month period (120 incidents). That's a structural move, not a single quiet month. Elsewhere, robbery is down 36.8% year-over-year (12 vs. 19) and theft from vehicle is down 10.6% (152 vs. 170), though neither crossed a signal threshold this month. Other larceny runs the other direction — up 25.4% over the prior 12 months — but also stayed below the signal cutoff.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 71 incidents — about 59% below the 173 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 71, down 41% from 120 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Baker compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
CBD
72 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Baker's 71.
Open page →Sunnyside
72 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Baker's 71.
Open page →Union Station
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Baker's 71.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Baker, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.