Baker Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Baker is an inner-ring neighborhood immediately south of Lincoln Park, organized around South Broadway between West 6th Avenue and West Alameda. The South Broadway commercial corridor is one of Denver's densest small-business strips, and the side streets are lined with late-1800s and early-1900s working-class Victorians.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in Baker: motor vehicle theft running below trend. One category moved, everything else held within its normal range.
Motor vehicle theft is at 73 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down from 99 in the prior 12-month period, a 26.3% reduction year over year. Aggravated assault is the one category moving in the other direction, up 19.4% to 37 incidents against 31 the year before, though it did not cross the threshold for a signal this month. Theft from vehicle and vandalism are also down on a 12-month basis, off 10.0% and 6.7% respectively, while robbery fell to 12 incidents from 17, a 29.4% drop. The overall picture is a neighborhood where most tracked categories are flat or declining.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 73 incidents — about 55% below the 164 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Baker compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Speer
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Baker's 73.
Open page →Globeville
75 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Baker's 73.
Open page →Washington Virginia Vale
75 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Baker's 73.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Baker, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.