Baker Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Baker is an inner-ring neighborhood immediately south of Lincoln Park, organized around South Broadway between West 6th Avenue and West Alameda. The South Broadway commercial corridor is one of Denver's densest small-business strips, and the side streets are lined with late-1800s and early-1900s working-class Victorians.
Baker's June 2026 briefing is narrow but consistent: two signals, both pointing the same direction, both in motor vehicle theft. One is a single-month below-trend drop; the other is a sustained structural shift confirming the move has been building over multiple months. Every other tracked category was within normal range.
Motor vehicle theft has fallen from 112 incidents in the prior 12 months to 69 in the current window — down 38.4% year-over-year. That's the clearest move in the neighborhood this period. Robbery also ran well below prior levels (9 incidents vs. 16, down 43.8%), though it didn't cross the signal threshold. Other Larceny is the one counter-trend: up 13.1% to 241 incidents, the only category running meaningfully above its prior-year pace.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 69 incidents — about 59% below the 167 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 69, down 38% from 112 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Baker compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Union Station
69 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Baker's 69.
Open page →CBD
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Baker's 69.
Open page →Sunnyside
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Baker's 69.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Baker, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.