Northeast Park Hill Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Northeast Park Hill is the northeastern section of Park Hill, between Colorado Boulevard and Quebec Street, north of East Martin Luther King Boulevard. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential, with a mix of larger-lot homes and the City of Axum Park on its eastern edge.
September 2026 produced a single structural signal in Northeast Park Hill: motor vehicle theft has shifted downward across the full trailing 12 months, a sustained multi-month move rather than a one-month anomaly. Every other tracked category landed within its normal range, making this a narrow briefing with one substantive story.
Motor vehicle theft is down 49.6% against the prior 12-year period, 70 incidents in the current window against 139 the year before. That is the dominant number this month. Aggravated assault also ran lower, 69 incidents against 78 a year ago, a 11.5% decline, while vandalism edged the other direction at 4.8% above the prior 12 months. No spikes, no rare events, and no other category crossed the signal threshold.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 70, down 50% from 139 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Northeast Park Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Baker
72 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Northeast Park Hill's 70.
Open page →Bear Valley
67 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Northeast Park Hill's 70.
Open page →Washington Virginia Vale
74 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Northeast Park Hill's 70.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Northeast Park Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.