Northeast Park Hill Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Northeast Park Hill is the northeastern section of Park Hill, between Colorado Boulevard and Quebec Street, north of East Martin Luther King Boulevard. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential, with a mix of larger-lot homes and the City of Axum Park on its eastern edge.
June 2026 was a one-signal month for Northeast Park Hill. Only motor vehicle theft generated a tracked signal — a sustained structural shift downward, not a single noisy month but a multi-month pattern showing up in the trailing 12-month window.
Motor vehicle theft is down 35.7% against the prior 12 months — 92 incidents in the current period against 143 in the year before. Every other tracked category stayed within range: robbery is also down substantially year-over-year (16 incidents vs. 23, a 30.4% decline), but that move did not cross the sustained-shift threshold this month. Burglary is the one category running in the opposite direction, up 16.0% over the prior 12 months (116 vs. 100), though it generated no signal this briefing.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 92, down 36% from 143 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Northeast Park Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Elyria Swansea
88 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Northeast Park Hill's 92.
Open page →Highland
97 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Northeast Park Hill's 92.
Open page →Globeville
84 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Northeast Park Hill's 92.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Northeast Park Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.