Northeast Park Hill Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Northeast Park Hill is the northeastern section of Park Hill, between Colorado Boulevard and Quebec Street, north of East Martin Luther King Boulevard. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential, with a mix of larger-lot homes and the City of Axum Park on its eastern edge.
August 2026 produced a single meaningful signal in Northeast Park Hill: a sustained, multi-month structural decline in motor vehicle theft. With just one category crossing the anomaly threshold, the broader picture is one of stability across the neighborhood's crime mix.
Motor vehicle theft is the story. The trailing 12 months logged 80 incidents against 137 in the prior year, a 41.6% reduction that runs well beyond a single quiet month. Every other tracked category stayed within its usual range: robbery is down 23.8% over the same 12-month window, and theft from vehicle fell 15.5%, but neither registered as an anomaly. Burglary and vandalism each moved slightly above the prior year, 3.8% and 2.5% respectively, without crossing into signal territory.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 80, down 42% from 137 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Northeast Park Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Windsor
82 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Northeast Park Hill's 80.
Open page →Elyria Swansea
84 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Northeast Park Hill's 80.
Open page →Globeville
75 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Northeast Park Hill's 80.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Northeast Park Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.