Bear Valley Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Bear Valley is a far-southwest Denver neighborhood organized around West Hampden Avenue and South Sheridan, near where Bear Creek joins the South Platte. Mid-to-late-20th-century single-family residential plus the Bear Valley shopping center and Bear Valley Park.
September 2026 was a quiet month in Bear Valley. No tracked category produced a notable signal this period, and the underlying 12-month data shows a neighborhood moving broadly in one direction: down across most crime types, with two modest exceptions.
Aggravated assault is the sharpest mover in the 12-month window, 10 incidents against 19 in the prior year, a 47.4% reduction. Vandalism and theft from vehicle followed similar trajectories, down 30.7% and 18.5% respectively. Motor vehicle theft and other larceny ran the other way, up 8.1% and 17.1%, but neither produced a month-specific signal strong enough to break from the noise.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bear Valley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Chaffee Park
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Bear Valley's 41.
Open page →Belcaro
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Bear Valley's 41.
Open page →Fort Logan
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Bear Valley's 41.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bear Valley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.