Bear Valley Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Bear Valley is a far-southwest Denver neighborhood organized around West Hampden Avenue and South Sheridan, near where Bear Creek joins the South Platte. Mid-to-late-20th-century single-family residential plus the Bear Valley shopping center and Bear Valley Park.
Bear Valley registered one signal in June 2026 — a sustained structural shift in vandalism, not a single noisy month. That distinction matters: a sustained shift reflects a change in the trailing 12-month pattern against the 12 months before it, meaning the drop has persisted long enough to show up in the structural baseline.
Vandalism is down 38.0% year-over-year, 49 incidents in the current 12 months against 79 in the prior period — the sharpest move in the neighborhood's tracked categories this briefing. Aggravated assault also dropped materially, down 36.4% (14 incidents vs. 22), and motor vehicle theft fell 11.1% (64 vs. 72). Other larceny is the one category moving the other direction, up 23.5% (42 vs. 34), though it produced no anomaly signal this month. Everything else — robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle — held close to prior-year levels.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 49, down 38% from 79 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bear Valley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Clayton
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Bear Valley's 49.
Open page →Harvey Park
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Bear Valley's 49.
Open page →Jefferson Park
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Bear Valley's 49.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bear Valley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.