Washington Virginia Vale Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Washington Virginia Vale is a southeast Denver neighborhood between East Alameda and East Mississippi Avenue, organized around Cherry Creek (the natural creek, not the shopping district) and the bike trail. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential with apartment buildings along Leetsdale Drive.
Four signals surfaced in Washington Virginia Vale this June — two single-month below-trend readings and two sustained structural shifts. The shape of the month is broadly downward across property crime, with burglary the most prominent mover and motor vehicle theft running alongside it.
Burglary registered both a one-month drop and a sustained shift: the trailing 12-month total is 65, down 36.9% from 103 in the prior year, and well below the multi-year baseline of 91.26. Motor vehicle theft tells a similar story — 72 incidents over the current 12 months against 132 in the year before, a 45.5% year-over-year decline. Other Larceny and Vandalism both moved in the opposite direction — up 18.1% and 14.6% respectively — but neither crossed an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 65 incidents — about 29% below the 91 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 72 incidents — about 70% below the 243 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 72, down 46% from 132 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 65, down 37% from 103 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Washington Virginia Vale compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Montbello
65 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Washington Virginia Vale's 65.
Open page →Sunnyside
66 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Washington Virginia Vale's 65.
Open page →Civic Center
62 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Washington Virginia Vale's 65.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Washington Virginia Vale, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.