Montbello Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Montbello is a far-northeast residential neighborhood east of Central Park and south of Green Valley Ranch, developed primarily in the 1960s and 1970s. Predominantly single-family suburban residential with Montbello Open Space Park and the namesake Montbello High School at its core.
Eight categories moved in Montbello this April — five ran below trend in the current month, and three reflect sustained structural shifts over the trailing 12 months. The overall shape is a broad, multi-category decline across both violent and property crime. No spikes, no rare-event signals, no streak breaks: the movement this month is entirely in one direction.
Vandalism leads the signals, with the trailing 12-month total at 145 against a baseline of 233.22 — and down 29.3% against the prior year's 205. Robbery and aggravated assault also ran below trend this month; robbery's 12-month total has dropped to 21 from 49 the year prior, a 57.1% fall. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle round out the declining categories, both tracking well below their prior-year totals. Other larceny is the one counter-move, up 11.4% year over year to 186, but it did not cross the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 145 incidents — about 38% below the 233 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 57% below the 48 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 93 incidents — about 28% below the 128 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 177 incidents — about 39% below the 291 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 156 incidents — about 66% below the 462 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 156, down 38% from 251 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 21, down 57% from 49 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 145, down 29% from 205 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Montbello compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Montbello, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.