Montbello Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Montbello is a far-northeast residential neighborhood east of Central Park and south of Green Valley Ranch, developed primarily in the 1960s and 1970s. Predominantly single-family suburban residential with Montbello Open Space Park and the namesake Montbello High School at its core.
Six categories moved in Montbello this September, all of them downward. Four ran below trend in a single-month drop pattern; two registered as sustained structural shifts, meaning the change isn't confined to this month but reflects a multi-month repositioning. The overall shape is a broad, coordinated decline across property and violent crime alike.
Robbery is the strongest signal, with 22 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 28 in the year before, down 21.4%. Theft from vehicle has dropped further in percentage terms, 164 incidents vs. 222 prior, a 26.1% reduction over the same window. Vandalism also ran below trend this month, contributing to a pattern where the cleaner, structural declines sit alongside the sharper one-month moves. Aggravated assault and other larceny are the exceptions, both up year-over-year (10.0% and 19.8% respectively), but neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 4
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 53% below the 47 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 164 incidents — about 42% below the 282 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 152 incidents — about 32% below the 225 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 146 incidents — about 66% below the 434 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 146, down 28% from 204 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 164, down 26% from 222 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Montbello compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Lincoln Park
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Montbello's 22.
Open page →Gateway - Green Valley Ranch
23 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Montbello's 22.
Open page →Washington Virginia Vale
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Montbello's 22.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Montbello, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.