Montbello Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Montbello is a far-northeast residential neighborhood east of Central Park and south of Green Valley Ranch, developed primarily in the 1960s and 1970s. Predominantly single-family suburban residential with Montbello Open Space Park and the namesake Montbello High School at its core.
Five categories moved in Montbello this August, four running below their single-month trend and one registering as a longer-term sustained shift. The shape of the month is broadly downward across property and violent crime, with no spikes and no rare-event clusters. The structural direction is consistent: most of what moved, moved lower.
Robbery is the strongest signal, with 21 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 35 in the prior year, down 40.0%. Vandalism and theft from vehicle also ran below trend this month, and theft from vehicle is down 22.1% over the same 12-month window, 173 incidents against 222. The one counter-current is other larceny, up 17.8% year-over-year (192 vs 163), the only category trending in the opposite direction from the rest of the neighborhood's pattern.
Notable signals 4
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 55% below the 47 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 147 incidents — about 35% below the 226 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 173 incidents — about 39% below the 284 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 154 incidents — about 65% below the 439 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 154, down 28% from 214 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Montbello compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
City Park West
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Montbello's 21.
Open page →Lincoln Park
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Montbello's 21.
Open page →Washington Virginia Vale
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Montbello's 21.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Montbello, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.