Montbello Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Montbello is a far-northeast residential neighborhood east of Central Park and south of Green Valley Ranch, developed primarily in the 1960s and 1970s. Predominantly single-family suburban residential with Montbello Open Space Park and the namesake Montbello High School at its core.
Five categories ran below trend in Montbello this June — all five moving in the same direction, with no spikes or rare events in the mix. The shape of the month is uniformly downward across both property and violent crime, a broad-based softening rather than movement in a single bucket.
Vandalism is the strongest single signal: the trailing 12-month total of 149 incidents sits well below the multi-year baseline of 230.09. Robbery is down 43.9% against the prior 12 months — 23 incidents vs. 41 — and theft from vehicle has fallen 14.5% over the same window, from 207 to 177. The two remaining below-trend signals (burglary and motor vehicle theft, each down more than 20% year-over-year) reinforce the same pattern; no tracked category moved against that grain this month.
Notable signals 5
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 149 incidents — about 35% below the 230 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 52% below the 48 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 177 incidents — about 38% below the 287 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 168 incidents — about 63% below the 451 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 65 incidents — about 43% below the 114 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Montbello compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Montbello, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.