Whittier Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Whittier is a small inner-ring neighborhood between Five Points and City Park, organized around East 25th Avenue and Downing Street. A historic Black Denver neighborhood, predominantly early-20th-century bungalows and Denver Squares with mature tree canopy.
April 2026 produced a single tracked signal in Whittier: motor vehicle theft running below trend. One category moved, and the rest of the tracked buckets were within their normal ranges.
Motor vehicle theft sits at 30 incidents over the current 12 months, down 33.3% against the prior-year total of 45 — and well below the multi-year baseline of 73.34. Burglary and other larceny both rose over the trailing 12 months (18.5% and 17.1%, respectively), but neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month. Aggravated assault and theft from vehicle both declined year-over-year — 26.1% and 17.5% — without generating a fresh signal.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 30 incidents — about 59% below the 73 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Whittier compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Hilltop
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Whittier's 30.
Open page →Platt Park
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Whittier's 30.
Open page →University
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Whittier's 30.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Whittier, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.