Whittier Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Whittier is a small inner-ring neighborhood between Five Points and City Park, organized around East 25th Avenue and Downing Street. A historic Black Denver neighborhood, predominantly early-20th-century bungalows and Denver Squares with mature tree canopy.
Two categories moved in Whittier this September, one above trend and one below, a narrow but meaningfully split month. Other Larceny registered the stronger signal, a spike against its multi-year pattern, while Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the same period.
Other Larceny's 12-month total reached 73 incidents, up 55.3% against the prior 12 months (47), the largest year-over-year shift among tracked categories this briefing. Motor Vehicle Theft moved the other direction, 24 incidents over the trailing year against 36 in the year before, a 33.3% decline. Vandalism and Burglary also posted notable 12-month shifts, up 46.7% and down 26.5% respectively, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 73 incidents — about 108% above the 35 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 24 incidents — about 66% below the 71 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Whittier compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
City Park
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Whittier's 73.
Open page →Cole
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Whittier's 73.
Open page →Harvey Park South
73 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Whittier's 73.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Whittierdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Whittier's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Whittier, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.