Hampden Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Hampden is a southeast residential neighborhood organized around East Hampden Avenue, between Holly Street and Interstate 25. Predominantly mid-century single-family with apartment-building corridors along Hampden itself.
Five categories moved in Hampden in April 2026 — three registered below-trend drops and two reflect sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall pattern is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Burglary, Motor Vehicle Theft, and Vandalism all ran below trend this month and are among the sharpest movers over the trailing 12 months: burglary is down 26.2% year-over-year (45 incidents vs. 61), motor vehicle theft is down 43.1% (119 vs. 209), and vandalism is down 27.8% (114 vs. 158). Two categories — accounting for the sustained-shift signals — show structural change rather than single-month noise, reinforcing that the property crime decline in Hampden is not just a one-month read. Aggravated assault is the counter-current, up 25.5% over the same period (59 vs. 47), though it did not register a signal this month.
Notable signals 3
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 45 incidents — about 57% below the 106 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 119 incidents — about 67% below the 365 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 114 incidents — about 51% below the 230 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 119, down 43% from 209 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 114, down 28% from 158 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Hampden compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hampden, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.