Cherry Creek Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Cherry Creek is an upscale shopping-and-residential district about three miles southeast of downtown, organized around the Cherry Creek Shopping Center and the boutique-lined Cherry Creek North retail grid. The surrounding residential streets are a mix of high-density mid-rise condos and single-family homes.
Seven categories moved in Cherry Creek this September, and the shape is uniformly downward. Three registered as single-month below-trend signals, and four reflect multi-month structural shifts, not just a quiet patch. Across property crime, the breadth of the decline is the story.
Vandalism is the strongest signal: 39 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 107 in the prior year, a 63.6% reduction. Theft from vehicle and burglary follow the same direction, down 45.5% and 44.1% respectively over the same window. Other larceny is the one exception, up 34.4% year-over-year (504 incidents vs. 375), and stands apart from an otherwise consistent downward pattern across every other tracked category.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 57% below the 90 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 33 incidents — about 50% below the 66 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 73 incidents — about 55% below the 163 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 39, down 64% from 107 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 504, up 34% from 375 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 73, down 46% from 134 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 33, down 44% from 59 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Cherry Creek compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
South Park Hill
39 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Cherry Creek's 39.
Open page →University
39 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Cherry Creek's 39.
Open page →Platt Park
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Cherry Creek's 39.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Cherry Creek, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.