Cherry Creek Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Cherry Creek is an upscale shopping-and-residential district about three miles southeast of downtown, organized around the Cherry Creek Shopping Center and the boutique-lined Cherry Creek North retail grid. The surrounding residential streets are a mix of high-density mid-rise condos and single-family homes.
Six categories moved in Cherry Creek this August, split evenly between single-month below-trend signals and multi-month sustained shifts. The structural pattern is broadly downward across property crime: three categories registered one-month drops and three others show sustained multi-year declines, with one category recording a zero-event signal. The outlier is Other Larceny, which is running 36.8% above the prior 12 months and sits apart from the otherwise consistent downward pattern.
Vandalism leads the single-month signals, with the trailing 12-month total at 43 incidents against 104 in the prior year, a drop of 58.7%. Burglary and Theft from Vehicle follow the same direction: burglary is down 35.1% (37 incidents vs. 57) and theft from vehicle is down 44.3% (78 vs. 140). Every other tracked category except Other Larceny is also below its prior-year level, with robbery off 23.1% and motor vehicle theft off 25.6%.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 43 incidents — about 52% below the 90 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 37 incidents — about 44% below the 66 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 78 incidents — about 52% below the 163 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 43, down 59% from 104 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 502, up 37% from 367 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 78, down 44% from 140 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Cherry Creek compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Valverde
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Cherry Creek's 43.
Open page →Hilltop
44 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Cherry Creek's 43.
Open page →City Park
45 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Cherry Creek's 43.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Cherry Creek, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.