Cherry Creek Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Cherry Creek is an upscale shopping-and-residential district about three miles southeast of downtown, organized around the Cherry Creek Shopping Center and the boutique-lined Cherry Creek North retail grid. The surrounding residential streets are a mix of high-density mid-rise condos and single-family homes.
Cherry Creek logged five tracked signals in June 2026 — three below-trend drops and two sustained structural shifts. The shape of the month is broadly downward across property crime: no spikes, no rare events, and the declines span both single-month dips and multi-year shifts.
Vandalism leads the signal list, with the trailing 12-month total at 56 incidents against a prior-year count of 105 — down 46.7%. Theft from vehicle and robbery also ran below trend: theft from vehicle is down 37.0% year-over-year (87 incidents vs. 138), and robbery has fallen to 8 incidents over the current 12 months against 17 in the prior period, a 52.9% decline. Other larceny is the one category moving in the opposite direction, up 24.9% to 481 incidents — everything else across tracked categories is contracting.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 56 incidents — about 37% below the 89 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 87 incidents — about 47% below the 165 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 8 incidents — about 63% below the 21 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 56, down 47% from 105 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 87, down 37% from 138 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Cherry Creek compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Berkeley
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Cherry Creek's 56.
Open page →Whittier
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Cherry Creek's 56.
Open page →Valverde
53 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Cherry Creek's 56.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Cherry Creek, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.