Valverde Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Valverde is a west-Denver neighborhood between the South Platte River and Federal Boulevard, just north of Alameda Avenue. A mix of mid-century single-family residential and light-industrial uses along the river, bordered by Sun Valley to the north.
June 2026 was a quiet month in Valverde — no category crossed an anomaly threshold. The broader 12-month picture is more active: five of seven tracked categories are running below their prior-year totals, and the declines are spread across both violent and property crime.
Robbery is down 36.4% against the prior 12 months (7 incidents vs. 11), aggravated assault is down 25.9% (20 vs. 27), and theft from vehicle is down 28.6% (35 vs. 49). Motor vehicle theft follows the same direction at -26.9%. The one category moving against that grain is other larceny, up 10.6% to 52 incidents over the trailing year. Vandalism held flat. No single-month signals surfaced this period — the story here is structural, not episodic.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Valverde compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Athmar Park
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Valverde's 52.
Open page →Southmoor Park
54 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Valverde's 52.
Open page →Clayton
47 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Valverde's 52.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Valverde, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.