Berkeley Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Berkeley is a northwest Denver neighborhood centered on Tennyson Street between West 38th and West 52nd Avenues, named after the now-vanished Berkeley Lake. The Tennyson commercial strip is a walkable mix of restaurants and shops; the side streets are early-20th-century bungalows and Denver Squares.
Berkeley's June 2026 briefing is defined by two signals moving in opposite directions. Motor vehicle theft registered a below-trend drop — the month's strongest signal — while other larceny has shifted structurally upward over the trailing 12 months. Every other tracked category was within its normal range.
Motor vehicle theft stands at 31 incidents over the current 12 months, down 38.0% against the prior 12-month total of 50. Other larceny tells the opposite story: 140 incidents in the current 12 months against 97 in the year before, a 44.3% increase that reflects a multi-month structural shift rather than a single noisy period. Robbery and aggravated assault both declined substantially year-over-year — down 66.7% and 27.8% respectively — but neither crossed an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 31 incidents — about 62% below the 82 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 140, up 44% from 97 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Berkeley compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Chaffee Park
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Berkeley's 31.
Open page →Cherry Creek
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Berkeley's 31.
Open page →Southmoor Park
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Berkeley's 31.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Berkeley, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.