West Price Hill Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
West Price Hill is a hillside West Side neighborhood west of East Price Hill, along Glenway Avenue and Warsaw Avenue. Predominantly single-family residential with the long Glenway Avenue commercial strip running through it.
West Price Hill had a structurally quiet June 2026 — one tracked signal across all monitored categories, and it runs in the right direction. Motor vehicle theft has shifted down at the structural level, not just a one-month dip: the sustained-shift classification reflects a multi-month realignment between the current trailing 12 months and the prior period.
Motor vehicle theft is down 41.7% against the prior 12 months — 81 incidents in the current window versus 139 in the year before. Robbery shows a comparable long-run move, off 35.2% year-over-year (35 vs. 54). Every other category — burglary, theft from vehicle, other larceny, aggravated assault — came in within a few percentage points of the prior year, well inside normal range. Sexual assault is up 100.0% in 12-month terms (14 vs. 7), a count too small to treat as a structural trend but worth watching if the direction holds.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 81, down 42% from 139 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How West Price Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Walnut Hills
77 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below West Price Hill's 81.
Open page →West End
71 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below West Price Hill's 81.
Open page →Roselawn
70 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below West Price Hill's 81.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Price Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.