West End Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
West End is a downtown-adjacent neighborhood between Central Parkway and the Mill Creek, west of the I-75 trench. Anchored by Music Hall on Washington Park, the FC Cincinnati TQL Stadium at the south end, and a historic core of African American institutions along Linn Street and Central Parkway.
Two categories moved in West End this August, one a single-month spike and one a structural shift pulling in the opposite direction. Burglary registered the sharper signal, running above its multi-year pace in what the data marks as a one-month anomaly rather than a longer trend. Theft from vehicle, meanwhile, shows a sustained shift downward, a pattern that has held across multiple months and reflects more than a quiet August.
Burglary is up 12.5% over the prior 12 months, 72 incidents against 64, and the current 12-month total is meaningfully above its historical multi-year pace of 48. Theft from vehicle tells a different story: 67 incidents in the current 12-month window against 103 in the year before, down 35.0%. Every other tracked category, robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, other larceny, and motor vehicle theft, stayed within normal range this month.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 72 incidents — about 50% above the 48 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 67, down 35% from 103 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How West End compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
West Price Hill
71 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below West End's 72.
Open page →CUF
86 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above West End's 72.
Open page →Walnut Hills
55 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 below West End's 72.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
West Enddoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows West End's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West End, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.