West End Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
West End is a downtown-adjacent neighborhood between Central Parkway and the Mill Creek, west of the I-75 trench. Anchored by Music Hall on Washington Park, the FC Cincinnati TQL Stadium at the south end, and a historic core of African American institutions along Linn Street and Central Parkway.
Three categories moved in West End this April — two one-month spikes and one sustained structural shift. The pair of spikes hit other larceny and burglary; the sustained shift runs in the opposite direction, with theft from vehicle showing a multi-month structural decline rather than a single quiet month.
Other larceny is the sharpest signal: 138 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 89.77, up 10.4% year-over-year against the prior 12 months. Burglary also spiked — 73 incidents in the current 12-month window vs. 62 in the prior period, a 17.7% rise. Theft from vehicle moved the other way in a more durable way: down 37.3% year-over-year, 74 incidents against 118, a shift consistent enough to register as structural.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 138 incidents — about 54% above the 90 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 73 incidents — about 56% above the 47 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 74, down 37% from 118 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How West End compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Walnut Hills
126 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below West End's 138.
Open page →Roselawn
153 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 above West End's 138.
Open page →Evanston
119 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 below West End's 138.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When West End has spiked other larceny historically (12 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 12 | 83.3% |
| Other larceny | 12 | 100% |
| Theft from vehicle | 7 | 100% |
| Aggravated assault | 5 | 100% |
Each row shows West End's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West End, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.