Walnut Hills Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Walnut Hills is a hillside neighborhood east of Over-the-Rhine, organized around Peebles' Corner at McMillan Street and Gilbert Avenue. Anchored by the historic May Festival Choral Hall and the East McMillan and Gilbert Avenue commercial corridors, with hillside residential blocks of Victorian and early-20th-century homes.
Two structural shifts defined Walnut Hills in June 2026 — both multi-month, neither a one-time fluctuation. Burglary and theft from vehicle moved in opposite directions, and both qualify as sustained shifts, meaning the gap between the trailing 12 months and the prior 12 has held long enough to register as a changed baseline rather than noise.
Burglary is down 41.6% over the trailing 12 months — 52 incidents against 89 in the year before — the larger of the two moves and the one with the clearest structural character. Theft from vehicle runs the other way: 161 incidents in the current window versus 116 prior, a 38.8% increase that mirrors the burglary decline in magnitude. Every other tracked category — robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, other larceny, motor vehicle theft — remained within range and generated no signals this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 52, down 42% from 89 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 161, up 39% from 116 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Walnut Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Downtown
55 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Walnut Hills's 52.
Open page →Northside
45 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Walnut Hills's 52.
Open page →College Hill
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Walnut Hills's 52.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Walnut Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.