Walnut Hills Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Walnut Hills is a hillside neighborhood east of Over-the-Rhine, organized around Peebles' Corner at McMillan Street and Gilbert Avenue. Anchored by the historic May Festival Choral Hall and the East McMillan and Gilbert Avenue commercial corridors, with hillside residential blocks of Victorian and early-20th-century homes.
September 2026 was a quiet month in Walnut Hills. No tracked category produced a notable signal, and the month closed without a single above-trend, below-trend, or rare-event move across any crime type.
The 12-month picture is more varied. Robbery and theft from vehicle are the categories running above their prior-year levels, up 22.7% (27 incidents vs. 22) and 15.4% (150 vs. 130) respectively. On the other side, aggravated assault is down 37.1% to 22 incidents from 35, sexual assault is down 50.0% to 5 from 10, burglary is down 29.1% to 56 from 79, and motor vehicle theft is down 28.1% to 64 from 89. Those structural declines in violent crime and property crime are the dominant trend in the trailing 12-month data, even if this particular month produced nothing that crossed the anomaly threshold.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Walnut Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
West End
122 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Walnut Hills's 137.
Open page →Camp Washington
118 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 below Walnut Hills's 137.
Open page →Mt. Airy
99 incidents over the past 12 months — 38 below Walnut Hills's 137.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Walnut Hillsdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Theft from vehicle | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Walnut Hills's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 8 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Walnut Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.