East Price Hill Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
East Price Hill is a hillside neighborhood west of downtown, between the Mill Creek Valley and the upper West Side. Anchored by Warsaw Avenue and Eighth Street, with Olden View Park and the Incline District at the eastern bluff overlooking downtown.
East Price Hill's August 2026 briefing registers a single notable signal: a sustained, multi-month structural decline in robbery. One category moved meaningfully this month, and that one is a longer-term shift, not a one-month dip.
Robbery is down 35.3% over the trailing 12 months, 66 incidents against 102 in the prior year. That gap reflects a durable change in direction, not noise. Everything else in the neighborhood held within normal range: burglary fell 12.4% year-over-year, motor vehicle theft fell 24.8%, and theft from vehicle rose 33.1%, but none of those crossed the threshold for a notable signal this month. The structural story is robbery, and the direction is clearly downward.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 66, down 35% from 102 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How East Price Hill compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Westwood
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 20 below East Price Hill's 66.
Open page →Downtown
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 below East Price Hill's 66.
Open page →Over-the-Rhine
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 below East Price Hill's 66.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for East Price Hill, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.