Avondale Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Avondale is an urban neighborhood north of downtown along Reading Road and Burnet Avenue, between Clifton and Walnut Hills. Anchored by the Cincinnati Zoo and Botanical Garden at its western edge and the Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center campus along Burnet, with the historic Forest Avenue residential blocks between.
September 2026 was a quiet month for Avondale. No tracked category produced a notable signal this period, and the month closed without any spikes, drops, sustained shifts, or rare events above the detection threshold.
The 12-month picture is more varied. Sexual assault is up 70.0% against the prior year, 17 incidents vs 10, and aggravated assault rose 17.5%, 94 vs 80. On the other side, motor vehicle theft is down 13.8% (100 vs 116) and theft from vehicle down 13.4% (84 vs 97). No single month in September was enough to push any of these into anomaly territory, but the longer-run divergence between rising assault counts and falling vehicle-related categories is the structural pattern worth watching in October.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Avondale compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Over-the-Rhine
190 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Avondale's 192.
Open page →Corryville
186 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Avondale's 192.
Open page →East Price Hill
200 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Avondale's 192.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Avondale, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.