Pendleton Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Pendleton is a small historic neighborhood adjacent to Over-the-Rhine, between Liberty Street and Reading Road on the east side of OTR. Italianate rowhouses and former industrial buildings, anchored by the 12th and Broadway corridor and Pendleton Art Center.
September 2026 produced a single signal in Pendleton: a sustained structural shift in theft from vehicle. This is not a one-month dip but a multi-month pattern embedded in the trailing 12-month window, pointing to a longer-term change in that category rather than noise.
Theft from vehicle is down 46.2% against the prior 12 months, 28 incidents vs. 52 in the year before. Other property categories moved in mixed directions: burglary fell 23.1% over the same period (10 vs. 13), and other larceny dropped 27.5% (29 vs. 40), while motor vehicle theft ran the other way at 35.7% above the prior year (19 vs. 14). Every other tracked category stayed within range, leaving theft from vehicle as the only signal that crossed the anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 28, down 46% from 52 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Pendleton compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Spring Grove Village
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Pendleton's 28.
Open page →Lower Price Hill_Queensgate
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Pendleton's 28.
Open page →Winton Hills
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Pendleton's 28.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Pendleton, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.