Pendleton Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Pendleton is a small historic neighborhood adjacent to Over-the-Rhine, between Liberty Street and Reading Road on the east side of OTR. Italianate rowhouses and former industrial buildings, anchored by the 12th and Broadway corridor and Pendleton Art Center.
June 2026 was a quiet month for Pendleton. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across the full crime mix — making this one of the more uneventful briefings in recent months.
The 12-month picture still carries meaningful movement. Burglary is up 63.6% against the prior year, 18 incidents vs. 11. Theft from vehicle and other larceny both ran well below prior-year levels — down 39.2% and 31.1% respectively — and motor vehicle theft edged down 14.3%. Aggravated assault dipped modestly, 5 incidents against 6 the year before. None of those shifts triggered a signal this month, but the burglary trend over the trailing 12 months is the figure that stands out most against an otherwise downward-trending property-crime backdrop.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Pendleton compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Millvale
32 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Pendleton's 31.
Open page →Roll Hill
27 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Pendleton's 31.
Open page →Paddock Hills
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Pendleton's 31.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Pendleton, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.