Lower Price Hill_Queensgate Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Lower Price Hill and Queensgate are merged here as a single Census-aligned SNA covering the industrial bottom of the West Side along the Mill Creek and the Ohio River. Includes the Queensgate rail and warehouse district and the Lower Price Hill residential pocket along State Avenue.
April 2026 was a quiet month for Lower Price Hill_Queensgate. No tracked category produced a notable signal — no spikes, no below-trend drops, no rare events, no sustained shifts crossed the anomaly threshold this period.
The 12-month picture, however, shows broad structural declines across most property and violent crime categories. Motor vehicle theft is down 44.7% against the prior year (26 incidents vs. 47), theft from vehicle is down 38.2% (21 vs. 34), and robbery is down 42.9% (4 vs. 7). Sexual assault follows the same direction at -50.0% (3 vs. 6). Burglary is the one counter-move: 26 incidents over the current 12 months against 21 in the prior period, a 23.8% increase — the only category trending upward in the trailing-year window.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Lower Price Hill_Queensgate compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Madisonville
68 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Lower Price Hill_Queensgate's 68.
Open page →Hyde Park
71 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Lower Price Hill_Queensgate's 68.
Open page →Mt. Auburn
62 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Lower Price Hill_Queensgate's 68.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Lower Price Hill_Queensgatedoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 4 | — too few |
Each row shows Lower Price Hill_Queensgate's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lower Price Hill_Queensgate, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.