Lower Price Hill_Queensgate Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Lower Price Hill and Queensgate are merged here as a single Census-aligned SNA covering the industrial bottom of the West Side along the Mill Creek and the Ohio River. Includes the Queensgate rail and warehouse district and the Lower Price Hill residential pocket along State Avenue.
September 2026 was a quiet month in Lower Price Hill/Queensgate. No tracked category generated a notable signal this period, and the month closes without any above-trend, below-trend, or rare-event moves to report.
The 12-month picture is still worth a look. Robbery is down 71.4% against the prior year, 2 incidents vs. 7, and burglary fell 25.9% (20 vs. 27). Motor vehicle theft is also lower, 29 incidents against 38 a year ago, a 23.7% reduction. Theft from vehicle is the one category moving in the other direction, up 7.4% to 29 incidents, though not enough to cross any anomaly threshold this month. Everything else sat within its expected range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Lower Price Hill_Queensgate compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Mt. Auburn
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Lower Price Hill_Queensgate's 64.
Open page →Bond Hill
63 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Lower Price Hill_Queensgate's 64.
Open page →Madisonville
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Lower Price Hill_Queensgate's 64.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lower Price Hill_Queensgate, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.