Winton Hills Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Winton Hills is a far-north Cincinnati neighborhood along Winton Road and the Mill Creek Valley north of Spring Grove Cemetery. Predominantly residential with significant public housing and the Mill Creek industrial corridor along its western edge.
April 2026 was a genuinely quiet month for Winton Hills. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero notable signals across the full range of crime types monitored this period.
The 12-month picture is more mixed. Aggravated assault is up 29.7% against the prior year (48 vs. 37 incidents), and other larceny is up 31.1% (59 vs. 45). On the other side, motor vehicle theft is down 26.8% (41 vs. 56), theft from vehicle is down 25.9% (20 vs. 27), and homicide dropped from 6 to 3 over the same span. Robbery and burglary shifted modestly. None of those 12-month moves generated a single-month signal this April — the trailing trends are present in the annual totals, but the month itself was within range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Winton Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Bond Hill
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Winton Hills's 59.
Open page →Mt. Washington
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Winton Hills's 59.
Open page →Mt. Auburn
62 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Winton Hills's 59.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Winton Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.