Winton Hills Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Winton Hills is a far-north Cincinnati neighborhood along Winton Road and the Mill Creek Valley north of Spring Grove Cemetery. Predominantly residential with significant public housing and the Mill Creek industrial corridor along its western edge.
Three signals surfaced in Winton Hills this September: two one-month spikes and one sustained multi-month shift. The spikes land in other larceny and aggravated assault, while the sustained shift in other larceny points to a structural change that predates this single month. That combination, a fresh spike on top of a longer trend, is the defining shape of the briefing.
Other larceny is the clearest story: 82 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 52 in the prior year, up 57.7%. Aggravated assault has also climbed sharply over the same window, 59 incidents vs. 35, a 68.6% increase. Motor vehicle theft moved the other way, down 40.7% to 32 incidents from 54, and robbery edged down 17.4%. Every other tracked category landed within a few percentage points of flat.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 82 incidents — about 51% above the 54 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 59 incidents — about 101% above the 29 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 82, up 58% from 52 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Winton Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Northside
81 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Winton Hills's 82.
Open page →College Hill
90 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Winton Hills's 82.
Open page →Evanston
91 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Winton Hills's 82.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Winton Hillsdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
| Aggravated assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Winton Hills's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Winton Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.