Spring Grove Village Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Spring Grove Village is a North Cincinnati neighborhood along Spring Grove Avenue and Mitchell Avenue, named for the adjacent Spring Grove Cemetery and Arboretum. Predominantly small-lot single-family residential with the cemetery's 700-plus acres forming its western edge.
Spring Grove Village registered one tracked signal in April 2026 — a burglary spike — against an otherwise unremarkable month. Every other tracked category stayed within normal range, making this a single-category story rather than a broad structural shift.
Burglary is the signal that moved: 25 incidents in the current 12 months against 15 in the prior 12, a 66.7% increase year-over-year. The longer-run baseline sits at 13.62, so the current 12-month total is running well above the multi-year norm. The other tracked categories tell a different story — motor vehicle theft is down 39.3% (17 vs. 28), aggravated assault is down 45.5% (6 vs. 11), and other larceny is down 30.4% (48 vs. 69) — but none of those crossed a threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 25 incidents — about 84% above the 14 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Spring Grove Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Carthage
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Spring Grove Village's 25.
Open page →Madisonville
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Spring Grove Village's 25.
Open page →Lower Price Hill_Queensgate
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Spring Grove Village's 25.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Spring Grove Village has spiked burglary historically (6 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 50% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Burglary | 6 | 50% |
Each row shows Spring Grove Village's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Spring Grove Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.