Madisonville Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Madisonville is an east Cincinnati neighborhood along Madison Road and Red Bank Road, between Oakley and the city limits. A mix of historic single-family homes, mid-century apartment buildings, and the Madison Road commercial corridor.
September 2026 was a quiet month in Madisonville. No tracked category produced a signal above or below trend, and no rare events or streak breaks surfaced. The month is best read as a holding pattern across the board.
The 12-month totals still show meaningful shifts worth noting for context. Motor vehicle theft stands at 18 incidents over the trailing year against 60 in the year before, down 70.0%, a structural change that predates this month. Aggravated assault moved in the other direction, 8 incidents in the current 12 months against 5 prior, up 60.0%, though the counts remain small. Robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle, and other larceny all came in within a few percentage points of their prior-year totals, with no category outside those two registering a move of more than 7.7%.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Madisonville compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Bond Hill
63 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Madisonville's 60.
Open page →Lower Price Hill_Queensgate
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Madisonville's 60.
Open page →Mt. Auburn
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Madisonville's 60.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Madisonville, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.