Kennedy Heights Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Kennedy Heights is an east-side neighborhood along Montgomery Road and Kennedy Avenue, north of Pleasant Ridge. Predominantly single-family residential with a small commercial node at Kennedy and Montgomery.
Kennedy Heights had a narrow June 2026 — one tracked signal, one direction. Theft from vehicle is the sole category that moved outside its normal range this month, a single spike against an otherwise steady backdrop across property crime.
Over the trailing 12 months, theft from vehicle reached 23 incidents, up 21.1% against the prior 12-month total of 19 — and above the multi-year baseline of 13.07. The rest of the property crime picture ran in the opposite direction: other larceny is down 22.2% year-over-year (21 incidents vs. 27), motor vehicle theft is down 17.6% (14 vs. 17), and burglary is down 15.8% (16 vs. 19). Theft from vehicle is the one category bucking a broader downward trend in Kennedy Heights.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 76% above the 13 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Kennedy Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Hartwell
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Kennedy Heights's 23.
Open page →Spring Grove Village
24 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Kennedy Heights's 23.
Open page →Camp Washington
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Kennedy Heights's 23.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Kennedy Heightsdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Theft from vehicle | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Kennedy Heights's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Cincinnati); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Kennedy Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.