Hartwell Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Hartwell is a north Cincinnati neighborhood along Vine Street and Galbraith Road, just inside the city limits south of Wyoming. Mostly small-lot single-family homes with a compact business district at Vine and Galbraith.
June 2026 produced a single notable signal in Hartwell: a sustained structural shift in motor vehicle theft, not a one-month blip but a multi-month pattern now embedded in the trailing 12-month window. With only one tracked signal and no spikes, rare events, or streak breaks anywhere in the data, the month was otherwise within normal range across every category.
Motor vehicle theft is down 61.1% against the prior 12 months — 21 incidents vs. 54 in the year before — the sharpest year-over-year move in the neighborhood. Robbery, burglary, and theft from vehicle are all running below prior-year levels as well: robbery at 2 incidents vs. 9 (down 77.8%), burglary down 31.0%, and theft from vehicle down 21.4%. The directional consistency across property and vehicle categories is the structural story here; motor vehicle theft is just the one that crossed the sustained-shift threshold.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 21, down 61% from 54 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Hartwell compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Camp Washington
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Hartwell's 21.
Open page →Mt. Washington
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Hartwell's 21.
Open page →Spring Grove Village
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Hartwell's 21.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hartwell, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.