Mt. Washington Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Mt. Washington is an east Cincinnati hilltop neighborhood along Beechmont Avenue, between the Ohio River and Anderson Township. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential with a long commercial corridor along Beechmont.
Mt. Washington registered one notable signal in August 2026: a below-trend read on burglary. The month was otherwise quiet across tracked categories, with no spikes, sustained shifts, or rare events.
Burglary sits at 14 incidents over the trailing 12 months, unchanged from the prior 12-month period. The below-trend signal reflects a single-month dip, not a structural shift. Motor vehicle theft is the sharpest mover in the broader property picture, down 38.2% year-over-year (21 incidents vs. 34), and other larceny has pulled back 22.6% (48 vs. 62). Theft from vehicle is also lower, off 14.3% against the prior year.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 39% below the 23 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mt. Washington compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
East End
14 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Mt. Washington's 14.
Open page →Hyde Park
14 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Mt. Washington's 14.
Open page →Mt. Auburn
14 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Mt. Washington's 14.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mt. Washington, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.