Mt. Washington Crime Rate Trends — Cincinnati
Mt. Washington is an east Cincinnati hilltop neighborhood along Beechmont Avenue, between the Ohio River and Anderson Township. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential with a long commercial corridor along Beechmont.
Two categories ran below trend in Mt. Washington this September, burglary and other larceny, and nothing spiked. The month's shape is a narrow, downward one: two below-trend signals, no sustained shifts, no rare events, and every other tracked category within its normal range.
Burglary is the stronger of the two signals. The trailing 12-month count stands at 14, flat against the prior 12-month total of 14, but the single-month read came in below its historical range. Other larceny tells a more structural story: 42 incidents over the past 12 months against 65 in the year before, a 35.4% year-over-year decline. Motor vehicle theft is also running well below its prior pace, down 31.2% to 22 incidents from 32, though it did not register as a signal this month.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 39% below the 23 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 42 incidents — about 37% below the 67 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
How Mt. Washington compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
North Fairmount
14 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Mt. Washington's 14.
Open page →East End
15 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Mt. Washington's 14.
Open page →Hyde Park
12 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Mt. Washington's 14.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mt. Washington, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Cincinnati Open Data — STARS Category Offenses post-2024-06-03 plus PDI Crime Incidents back to 2020 — mapped to 8 UCR-aligned categories (vandalism and arson aren't recoverable across the STARS migration boundary). Aggregated to Statistical Neighborhood Approximation × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.