Auburn Gresham Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Auburn Gresham is a South Side neighborhood organized around the 79th Street commercial corridor between Halsted and Western. Named for the Auburn Park subdivision and the village of Gresham that the city annexed in 1889; predominantly single-family bungalows.
Three tracked signals emerged in Auburn Gresham this June — two one-month below-trend readings and one sustained structural shift. The shape of the month is broadly downward on violent crime, with aggravated assault and robbery both running below their recent baselines, and robbery also registering as a multi-month structural decline, not just a single quiet month.
Aggravated assault is the month's strongest signal: the trailing 12-month total sits at 377, against a multi-year baseline of 456.72 — a meaningful gap that points to a genuine change in the category's level, not random variation. Robbery reinforces that picture from two directions: 110 incidents over the current 12 months vs. 234 in the prior year, a 53.0% reduction, and the sustained-shift reading confirms the drop has held across multiple months. Everything else — burglary, motor vehicle theft, vandalism, other larceny — came in within normal range.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 377 incidents — about 17% below the 457 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 110 incidents — about 51% below the 227 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 110, down 53% from 234 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Auburn Gresham compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Chatham
367 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Auburn Gresham's 377.
Open page →Humboldt Park
351 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Auburn Gresham's 377.
Open page →Englewood
425 incidents over the past 12 months — 48 above Auburn Gresham's 377.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Auburn Gresham, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.