Auburn Gresham Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Auburn Gresham is a South Side neighborhood organized around the 79th Street commercial corridor between Halsted and Western. Named for the Auburn Park subdivision and the village of Gresham that the city annexed in 1889; predominantly single-family bungalows.
Auburn Gresham had one tracked signal in March 2026: a sustained structural decline in robbery. This is not a single quiet month — the 12-month pattern has shifted against the prior-year baseline, making it a multi-year context story rather than a one-month anomaly.
Robbery is down 39.1% over the trailing 12 months — 140 incidents against 230 in the prior 12-month period. The rest of the tracked categories held within their normal ranges: aggravated assault at 404 (down 10.2%), burglary at 172 (down 16.1%), and homicide at 19 (down 34.5%) all show year-over-year declines, though none crossed the signal threshold this month. Sexual assault, other larceny, and vandalism were each within 5.1% or less of prior-year levels.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 140, down 39% from 230 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Auburn Gresham compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Lake View
143 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Auburn Gresham's 140.
Open page →West Garfield Park
134 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Auburn Gresham's 140.
Open page →Chatham
153 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above Auburn Gresham's 140.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Auburn Gresham, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.