West Elsdon Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
West Elsdon is a Southwest Side residential neighborhood between Pulaski Road and Cicero Avenue, organized around 55th Street. Predominantly single-family bungalows on a tight grid, bordered by the Stevenson Expressway and the Brighton Park neighborhood.
August 2026 was a quiet month for West Elsdon. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the signal count for the period is zero across all types, no spikes, no below-trend moves, no rare events.
The 12-month totals provide the structural context. Robbery is the clearest multi-year mover: 13 incidents in the current 12 months against 28 in the prior 12, down 53.6%. Other larceny is also running well below the prior period, 140 incidents against 183, down 23.5%. On the other side, aggravated assault is up 15.0% year over year, 46 incidents against 40, and motor vehicle theft is up 10.7%, 93 incidents against 84. No single month drove those shifts enough to cross an anomaly threshold, but the directional split, violent property theft rising while robbery and larceny fall, is the pattern to watch heading into September.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How West Elsdon compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Hegewisch
136 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below West Elsdon's 140.
Open page →Riverdale
131 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below West Elsdon's 140.
Open page →Oakland
157 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 above West Elsdon's 140.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Elsdon, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.