Avalon Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Avalon Park is a South Side residential neighborhood between Stony Island Avenue and the Chicago Skyway, organized around Avalon Park itself. Predominantly single-family bungalows on a quiet grid, bordered by the Chatham and Calumet Heights neighborhoods.
June 2026 was a quiet month for Avalon Park. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across all flag types — making this one of the calmest briefing periods in recent data.
The 12-month volume picture is similarly stable. Robbery is the clearest longer-run mover, down 17.9% against the prior year (32 incidents vs. 39). Every other category held close to flat: aggravated assault off 1.4%, motor vehicle theft off 1.9%, burglary off 2.4%. Other larceny and vandalism ticked modestly higher — 3.6% and 4.3% respectively — but neither reached a level that registers as a notable shift. The structural picture is one of low volatility across the board.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Avalon Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Montclare
180 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Avalon Park's 175.
Open page →Oakland
162 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Avalon Park's 175.
Open page →Clearing
192 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 above Avalon Park's 175.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Avalon Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.