Norwood Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Norwood Park is a Far Northwest Side residential neighborhood on the Park Ridge border, organized around Northwest Highway and the Metra Union Pacific-Northwest Line. Predominantly single-family homes, including the historic Norwood Park subdivision dating to the 1870s.
Norwood Park had a narrow month in June 2026 — a single signal across all tracked categories, a below-trend read on burglary. The broader picture is dominated not by one-month noise but by structural declines in violent and property crime that have built over the past 12 months.
Burglary sits at 27 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down 43.8% from 48 in the prior year. Robbery and aggravated assault follow the same direction — robbery is down 50.0% (9 vs. 18) and aggravated assault down 32.5% (27 vs. 40). Against that backdrop, motor vehicle theft is moving the other way, up 54.8% to 65 incidents, and sexual assault is up 66.7% to 15 — both categories to watch, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 27 incidents — about 52% below the 56 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Norwood Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
East Side
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Norwood Park's 27.
Open page →Hermosa
29 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Norwood Park's 27.
Open page →West Elsdon
25 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Norwood Park's 27.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Norwood Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.