Morgan Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Morgan Park is a Far South Side neighborhood on the Blue Island Ridge, organized around the Metra Rock Island District's Morgan Park stations and the 111th Street commercial strip. Predominantly single-family homes, including the historic Beverly Unitarian Church (Givins Castle) on the western edge.
September 2026 was a quiet month for Morgan Park. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the signal count for the month is zero across all signal types.
The 12-month picture is mixed but not dramatic. Motor vehicle theft is the sharpest mover, up 34.2% against the prior year, 157 incidents vs 117. Other larceny moved in the opposite direction, down 14.6% to 379 incidents from 444. Homicide is down 33.3% over the same window, 4 incidents vs 6, while aggravated assault, vandalism, robbery, and burglary all held within a few percentage points of last year's pace. Everything else was within normal range for the month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Morgan Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Washington Park
360 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 below Morgan Park's 379.
Open page →South Deering
358 incidents over the past 12 months — 21 below Morgan Park's 379.
Open page →West Garfield Park
404 incidents over the past 12 months — 25 above Morgan Park's 379.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Morgan Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.