Brighton Park Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Brighton Park is a Southwest Side neighborhood bordered by the Stevenson Expressway and Bubbly Creek, organized around Archer Avenue and 47th Street. Historically a manufacturing district along the rail corridors; predominantly bungalows and worker cottages.
Two categories shifted structurally in Brighton Park this September, burglary and motor vehicle theft, both running above their prior-year levels across the full trailing 12 months. These are sustained shifts, not single noisy months: the pattern has held long enough to separate from short-term variation. No spikes, drops, or rare events surfaced alongside them.
Burglary is up 53.8% against the prior 12 months, 100 incidents vs. 65, the stronger of the two signals. Motor vehicle theft is up 42.4%, 168 incidents vs. 118. Other larceny moved the other direction, down 10.5% to 418 from 467, and every other tracked category was within a range that didn't cross the anomaly threshold. The story in Brighton Park this month is concentrated in those two property crime categories, both of which have been climbing for long enough to look structural rather than seasonal.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 168, up 42% from 118 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 100, up 54% from 65 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Brighton Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
West Englewood
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Brighton Park's 100.
Open page →West Ridge
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brighton Park's 100.
Open page →New City
95 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Brighton Park's 100.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brighton Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.