Logan Square Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Logan Square is a Northwest Side neighborhood organized around the Illinois Centennial Monument at Logan Square and the CTA Blue Line's Logan Square and California stations. Anchored by the Milwaukee Avenue commercial strip, the boulevard system designed by William Le Baron Jenney, and Palmer Square Park.
Logan Square registered one signal in September 2026: a sustained structural shift in robbery, running well below its prior-year pace. That single signal reflects a quiet month overall, with every other tracked category within normal range.
Robbery is down 38.1% over the trailing 12 months, 73 incidents against 118 in the year before. That is not a one-month dip but a multi-month structural change, which is what the sustained-shift classification reflects. Burglary, aggravated assault, and sexual assault are all lower year-over-year as well, 25.4%, 17.6%, and 27.0% respectively, though none crossed the threshold for a separate signal this month. Vandalism and motor vehicle theft held roughly flat.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 73, down 38% from 118 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Logan Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Uptown
67 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Logan Square's 73.
Open page →Rogers Park
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Logan Square's 73.
Open page →Lincoln Park
62 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Logan Square's 73.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Logan Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.