Logan Square Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Logan Square is a Northwest Side neighborhood organized around the Illinois Centennial Monument at Logan Square and the CTA Blue Line's Logan Square and California stations. Anchored by the Milwaukee Avenue commercial strip, the boulevard system designed by William Le Baron Jenney, and Palmer Square Park.
Three categories moved in Logan Square this March — all three sustained shifts, all pointing downward. This is not a one-month dip: robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft have each settled into a structurally lower range over the trailing 12 months compared to the prior year, a broad and consistent pattern across the neighborhood's most significant crime categories.
Motor vehicle theft leads the 12-month decline at -40.1%, falling from 471 to 282 incidents. Robbery is down 39.5% (89 vs. 147) and burglary down 35.3% (134 vs. 207) over the same window. Vandalism is the one category running in the opposite direction — up 11.8%, 569 incidents against 509 the prior year — but it did not cross the signal threshold this month and sits outside the three tracked shifts.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 282, down 40% from 471 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 134, down 35% from 207 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 89, down 40% from 147 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Logan Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Roseland
138 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Logan Square's 134.
Open page →South Chicago
118 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 below Logan Square's 134.
Open page →Englewood
116 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 below Logan Square's 134.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Logan Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.