West Ridge Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
West Ridge — also known as West Rogers Park — is a Far North Side neighborhood organized around the Devon Avenue commercial corridor between Western Avenue and California Avenue. Predominantly two- and three-flat housing, bordered by Evanston to the north and Rogers Park to the east.
June 2026 was a quiet month for West Ridge. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across the full crime mix, a month where the underlying data moved without producing anything outside the normal range.
The 12-month picture has more texture. Burglary is up 32.9% against the prior year — 113 incidents vs 85 — and vandalism is up 12.6% (392 vs 348). Moving the other direction: sexual assault is down 38.2% (34 vs 55), robbery is down 17.8% (60 vs 73), and motor vehicle theft is down 6.7% (237 vs 254). Aggravated assault is essentially flat at 142 incidents against 140. No single month this briefing broke out, but the structural divergence between rising property damage and falling violent crime is the pattern worth tracking.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How West Ridge compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Douglas
739 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above West Ridge's 726.
Open page →South Lawndale
704 incidents over the past 12 months — 22 below West Ridge's 726.
Open page →Grand Boulevard
684 incidents over the past 12 months — 42 below West Ridge's 726.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Ridge, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.