Chicago Lawn Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Chicago Lawn — also known as Marquette Park — is a Southwest Side neighborhood organized around 63rd Street and California Avenue. Anchored by Marquette Park itself, one of the largest parks on the South Side, with predominantly bungalow housing on a tight grid.
Three signals moved in Chicago Lawn this March — two one-month below-trend readings and one sustained structural shift. The shape is narrowly focused on robbery and vandalism, with robbery appearing twice in the top signals: once as a single-month drop and once as a longer-term sustained shift.
Robbery is the clearest story here. The trailing 12-month total has fallen to 105, down 43.5% against the prior 12 months (186), and well below the multi-year baseline of 204.66 — that gap points to a structural change, not just a quiet March. Vandalism also ran below trend this month, with the 12-month count at 537 against 581 the prior year, a 7.6% decline. Every other tracked category fell within range for the month.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 105 incidents — about 49% below the 205 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 537 incidents — about 15% below the 634 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 105, down 44% from 186 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Chicago Lawn compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
East Garfield Park
106 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Chicago Lawn's 105.
Open page →West Englewood
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Chicago Lawn's 105.
Open page →New City
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Chicago Lawn's 105.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Chicago Lawn, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.