Lake View Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Lake View is a North Side neighborhood organized around Belmont and Addison Streets, anchored by Wrigley Field, the Music Box Theatre, and the CTA Red Line's Belmont, Addison, and Sheridan stations. Mixed mid-rise apartments and Victorian-era three-flats; bordered by Lake Michigan to the east.
Lake View's March 2026 briefing is narrow but structurally significant: two categories moved, both as sustained multi-month shifts, both downward. This is not a single quiet month — the trailing 12-month window is tracking below the prior 12 months across robbery and motor vehicle theft, a pattern that has held long enough to register as a structural change rather than noise.
Motor vehicle theft is down 27.5% against the prior 12 months — 287 incidents vs. 396 — the larger of the two moves. Robbery follows at −25.1%, 143 incidents vs. 191. Every other tracked category in Lake View — aggravated assault, burglary, vandalism, other larceny, sexual assault — ran within normal range this month, with no spikes or rare events surfacing.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 287, down 28% from 396 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 143, down 25% from 191 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Lake View compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Washington Heights
289 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Lake View's 287.
Open page →West Englewood
283 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Lake View's 287.
Open page →Logan Square
282 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Lake View's 287.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lake View, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.