Grand Boulevard Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Grand Boulevard is a South Side neighborhood, the historical core of the Bronzeville district, organized around Martin Luther King Drive and 47th Street. Anchored by the Harold Washington Cultural Center, the historic Regal Theater site, and the Green Line's Indiana station.
Grand Boulevard had two tracked signals in June 2026 — one below-trend drop and one sustained structural shift — both pointing in the same direction: violent crime is materially lower than it was a year ago.
Robbery is the sharper single-month signal, with a 12-month total of 58 against a prior-year count of 84, down 31.0%. Aggravated Assault carries the longer story: down 27.9% over 12 months (150 incidents vs. 208), classified as a sustained shift rather than a one-month move. Everything else in the tracked categories — burglary, vandalism, motor vehicle theft — ran within range and did not cross the anomaly threshold.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 58 incidents — about 43% below the 101 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 150, down 28% from 208 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Grand Boulevard compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Douglas
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Grand Boulevard's 58.
Open page →Lincoln Park
58 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Grand Boulevard's 58.
Open page →Gage Park
57 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Grand Boulevard's 58.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Grand Boulevard, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.