Grand Boulevard Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Grand Boulevard is a South Side neighborhood, the historical core of the Bronzeville district, organized around Martin Luther King Drive and 47th Street. Anchored by the Harold Washington Cultural Center, the historic Regal Theater site, and the Green Line's Indiana station.
Three signals moved in Grand Boulevard this March — one one-month below-trend drop and two sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is a multi-year decrease in violent crime: robbery and aggravated assault are both running well below where they stood 12 months ago, and the sustained-shift signals indicate this isn't a single quiet month but a pattern that has held across multiple months.
Robbery is the clearest case: 59 incidents over the current 12-month window against 92 in the prior year, down 35.9%, and the trailing count sits notably below its multi-year baseline of 101.8. Aggravated assault tells the same story — 140 incidents vs. 222 in the prior 12 months, a 36.9% decrease. Everything else in the neighborhood either held within normal range or showed only modest moves; the March signal in Grand Boulevard is concentrated in violent crime, and it points in one direction.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 59 incidents — about 42% below the 102 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 140, down 37% from 222 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 59, down 36% from 92 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Grand Boulevard compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Lincoln Park
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Grand Boulevard's 59.
Open page →Washington Heights
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Grand Boulevard's 59.
Open page →Armour Square
61 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Grand Boulevard's 59.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Grand Boulevard, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.