Englewood Crime Rate Trends — Chicago
Englewood is a South Side neighborhood organized around 63rd and Halsted Streets, historically one of the city's largest commercial centers. Bordered by the Dan Ryan Expressway and Garfield Boulevard; anchored by Hamilton Park, Kennedy-King College, and the Ogden Park field house.
Three categories moved in Englewood this September, a contained month with signals running in one direction. Two registered as single-month below-trend reads, robbery and vandalism, and robbery carries an additional sustained-shift signal, meaning the decline extends across multiple months rather than a single quiet period.
Robbery is the clearest mover: the trailing 12-month total stands at 115, down 41.0% against the prior year's 195. Vandalism also ran below trend this month, with the 12-month total at 507 against 587 the year before, a 13.6% reduction. Aggravated assault and motor vehicle theft were within their normal ranges and did not register any notable movement. The robbery pattern, both a one-month drop and a multi-month structural decline, is the signal with the most weight here.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 115 incidents — about 45% below the 211 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 507 incidents — about 20% below the 634 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 115, down 41% from 195 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Vandalism
How Englewood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
West Garfield Park
111 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Englewood's 115.
Open page →Auburn Gresham
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Englewood's 115.
Open page →West Englewood
106 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Englewood's 115.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Englewood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from CPD's open dataset on the City of Chicago Open Data portal — IUCR-coded and mapped to 9 UCR-aligned categories (theft from vehicle isn't reliably separable in the public feed and rolls into other larceny). Aggregated to community area × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.