Citywide incident volume was down 5.6% against the trailing twelve months in January 2025. The largest moves are summarized to the left and broken out below.
The headline is in Woodland Hills, where vandalism jumped sharply against the prior baseline. The neighborhood page (link in the sidebar) walks through the geography and timing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Homicide ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 37% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for January were issued from data through December 2024. 7 of 10 citywide bucket forecasts (70%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 725[81–1332] | 1089 | 33.5% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 27[1–52] | 74 | 63.8% | MISS |
| Burglary | 984[320–1610] | 794 | 23.9% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 23[4–40] | 18 | 25.5% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 2216[1742–2684] | 1462 | 51.6% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 2251[1779–2745] | 2109 | 6.7% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 497[129–898] | 612 | 18.8% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 137[27–249] | 188 | 27.0% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 2045[1732–2378] | 1807 | 13.2% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 660[412–914] | 1729 | 61.8% | MISS |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “January 2025 — Los Angeles,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /los-angeles/2025/january