Porter Ranch Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Porter Ranch is a far northwestern San Fernando Valley neighborhood at the foot of the Santa Susana Mountains, organized around Rinaldi Street and Tampa Avenue. A mid-century-and-newer planned community; anchored by the Porter Ranch Town Center and Limekiln Canyon Park.
Four signals surfaced in Porter Ranch this March — one single-month below-trend move and three sustained structural shifts. The structural pattern is broadly downward across property crime, with multiple categories running at 12-month totals well below the prior year.
Theft from vehicle is the lead signal: 47 incidents over the current 12 months against 83 in the prior year, a 43.4% year-over-year drop, and it also registers as a sustained multi-month shift. Burglary shows the same structural pattern, down 45.2% (51 vs. 93). Vandalism's 12-month total of 44 is down 52.2% from 92, and robbery and aggravated assault have contracted sharply as well — robbery from 9 to 3, aggravated assault from 21 to 9.
Notable signals 1
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 47 incidents — about 54% below the 103 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 44, down 52% from 92 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 51, down 45% from 93 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 47, down 43% from 83 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Porter Ranch compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Sepulveda Basin
47 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Porter Ranch's 47.
Open page →Montecito Heights
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Porter Ranch's 47.
Open page →Larchmont
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Porter Ranch's 47.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Porter Ranch, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.