University Hills other larceny is the lead signal for September 2025, registering the sharpest single-neighborhood move in Denver this month. The more striking structural fact, though, is that every slot in the top five is the same category: other larceny is up across University Hills, East Colfax, Globeville, University, and Windsor simultaneously — a broad category move, not an isolated neighborhood event.
Citywide volume is down 9.2% against the prior 12 months — 41,772 incidents against 46,022 — a meaningful decline in overall crime. The signal mix, however, is less uniformly quiet than that headline number suggests: 20 fresh spikes sit alongside 106 below-trend signals and 82 sustained-shift signals across 78 neighborhoods. The other-larceny pattern concentrated in the top five cuts against the broader downward trend.
The other-larceny concentration is new — lead_run_length is 1, so this is its first month at the top of the rankings. Whether it represents a durable shift or a single-month cluster will depend on October's data. The citywide decline otherwise holds across a wide base of 229 tracked signals, and no other category shows the same multi-neighborhood alignment this briefing.
Sustained drops worth naming
Motor Vehicle Theft ran below trend in the trailing 12 months — 33% down from the year before. Sustained shifts often precede a baseline reset; we surface them at the same prominence as spikes.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for September were issued from data through August 2025. 9 of 9 citywide bucket forecasts (100%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 236[212–259] | 233 | 1.4% | INSIDE |
| Arson | 13[4–21] | 11 | 13.9% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 370[285–449] | 353 | 4.8% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 3[0–6] | 5 | 50.0% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 447[314–567] | 421 | 6.1% | INSIDE |
| Other Larceny | 1029[943–1107] | 1064 | 3.3% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 96[76–115] | 78 | 22.6% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 561[394–729] | 699 | 19.7% | INSIDE |
| Vandalism | 546[477–616] | 583 | 6.4% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “September 2025 — Denver,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /denver/2025/september