CUF other larceny is the headline signal for July 2025 — the sharpest single-neighborhood move this briefing, and a fresh one with no prior-month run to qualify it. Downtown also registered spikes in two separate categories, robbery and burglary, making it the most broadly active neighborhood in the top five. Pleasant Ridge motor vehicle theft and Mt. Airy aggravated assault round out a month where the dominant direction is upward.
Citywide volume is up 1.4% against the prior 12 months — 14,451 incidents against 14,253 — a modest change in total, but the composition is active: 36 spikes against 6 below-trend signals across 50 neighborhoods, with 20 sustained-shift signals adding to the upward lean. That 36-to-6 spike-to-drop ratio is the more telling number; the aggregate is nearly flat, but the distribution is not.
With 71 total signals and 50 neighborhoods registering movement, July 2025 is one of the more active months in terms of breadth. The CUF signal is new, not a continuation of a prior run, so it warrants watching in August. If Downtown's dual-category movement persists, that will be the more structurally significant story going forward.
Sustained drops worth naming
No sustained-shift signals this month — every category sits within its trailing-year range.
How last month's forecasts performed
Forecasts for July were issued from data through June 2025. 7 of 8 citywide bucket forecasts (88%) landed inside their 95% prediction intervals.
| Category | Predicted | Actual | Error | In CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggravated Assault | 92[77–107] | 85 | 8.7% | INSIDE |
| Burglary | 159[124–196] | 153 | 3.8% | INSIDE |
| Homicide | 4[1–8] | 3 | 41.6% | INSIDE |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 365[244–484] | 240 | 52.2% | MISS |
| Other Larceny | 441[389–491] | 444 | 0.8% | INSIDE |
| Robbery | 65[47–83] | 69 | 6.5% | INSIDE |
| Sexual Assault | 20[13–27] | 16 | 24.2% | INSIDE |
| Theft from Vehicle | 290[220–362] | 264 | 9.8% | INSIDE |
Per-bucket coverage, MAPE, and bias across the full 12-month horizon live on the methodology page.
Public Analyst.ai, “July 2025 — Cincinnati,” archived snapshot.Permanent URL: /cincinnati/2025/july