Vermont Square Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Vermont Square is a South LA neighborhood organized around the Vermont Square library, one of the original Carnegie libraries in the city. Predominantly Craftsman bungalows on a tight grid.
Six categories moved in Vermont Square this month — four below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Burglary is the most pronounced move: 41 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline of 102.71, and down 48.8% against the prior 12 months (80 incidents). Robbery and Other Larceny also ran below trend this month, with robbery down 17.3% year-over-year and other larceny down 45.6% — from 248 to 135 incidents. The two sustained-shift signals indicate these aren't single-month dips; the structural direction across Vermont Square has been downward for multiple periods.
Notable signals 4
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 41 incidents — about 60% below the 103 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 115 incidents — about 32% below the 168 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 135 incidents — about 35% below the 207 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 277 incidents — about 34% below the 417 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 135, down 46% from 248 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 41, down 49% from 80 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Vermont Square compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Echo Park
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Vermont Square's 41.
Open page →Watts
43 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Vermont Square's 41.
Open page →Brentwood
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Vermont Square's 41.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Vermont Square, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.