Broadway-Manchester Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Broadway-Manchester is a South LA neighborhood organized around the Broadway and Manchester Avenue commercial corridors, just east of the 110 Freeway between Florence and Manchester. Predominantly single-family bungalows and small apartment courtyards on a tight residential grid.
Broadway-Manchester had a structurally quiet August 2026, with one signal across all tracked categories: a sustained multi-month increase in motor vehicle theft. Every other category either held flat or moved within normal range, making this a month defined by one persistent structural shift rather than broad volatility.
Motor vehicle theft is up 42.4% against the prior 12 months, 366 incidents vs 257, and the sustained-shift classification means this is not a single noisy month but a pattern that has been building across the trailing 12-month window. Violent crime categories are moving in the opposite direction: aggravated assault is down 14.0% year-over-year (289 vs 336), robbery is down 11.2% (127 vs 143), and sexual assault is down 18.5% (53 vs 65). Burglary and theft from vehicle also ran above prior-year levels, 23.8% and 18.0% respectively, but neither crossed an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 366, up 42% from 257 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Broadway-Manchester compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
North Hollywood
370 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Broadway-Manchester's 366.
Open page →University Park
353 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Broadway-Manchester's 366.
Open page →Westchester
341 incidents over the past 12 months — 25 below Broadway-Manchester's 366.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Broadway-Manchester, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.