Broadway-Manchester Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Broadway-Manchester is a South LA neighborhood organized around the Broadway and Manchester Avenue commercial corridors, just east of the 110 Freeway between Florence and Manchester. Predominantly single-family bungalows and small apartment courtyards on a tight residential grid.
March 2026 was a quiet month for Broadway-Manchester. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — zero signals across all flag types — so the month's picture comes from the 12-month trend data rather than any single-month move.
The structural direction across most categories is downward. Robbery is down 20.0% against the prior 12 months (120 vs 150), aggravated assault is down 15.1% (276 vs 325), and other larceny is down 17.9% (147 vs 179). The exception is motor vehicle theft, up 20.7% over the same window (344 vs 285), and arson, up 57.1% (11 vs 7) — though arson volumes remain low in absolute terms. Every other tracked category finished below its prior-year level.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Broadway-Manchester compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Lincoln Heights
153 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Broadway-Manchester's 147.
Open page →Palms
153 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Broadway-Manchester's 147.
Open page →Harbor Gateway
137 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Broadway-Manchester's 147.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Broadway-Manchester, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.