Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw is a South LA neighborhood organized around the Crenshaw Boulevard commercial corridor and the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza mall. Anchored by the Kenneth Hahn State Recreation Area in the hills to the south and the Metro K Line stations along Crenshaw.
Five signals across eight tracked categories in Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw this March — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year pullback in property crime, with burglary at the center of both the short-term and longer-term moves.
Burglary accounts for both a single-month drop and a sustained shift: the trailing 12-month total is 35, down 45.3% against the prior 12-month total of 64, and well below the multi-year baseline of 93.4. Motor vehicle theft is also running below trend in the short term, with the 12-month total at 110 against 175 the prior year — a 37.1% decline. Other Larceny and Vandalism round out the structural picture, each showing 12-month declines of 44.0% and 16.0% respectively. Theft from vehicle is the one category moving the other direction, up 5.5% year-over-year, but no fresh spike surfaced this month.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 35 incidents — about 63% below the 93 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 110 incidents — about 45% below the 200 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 196, down 44% from 350 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 110, down 37% from 175 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 35, down 45% from 64 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Toluca Lake
35 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw's 35.
Open page →Central-Alameda
36 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw's 35.
Open page →Glassell Park
34 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw's 35.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.