Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw is a South LA neighborhood organized around the Crenshaw Boulevard commercial corridor and the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza mall. Anchored by the Kenneth Hahn State Recreation Area in the hills to the south and the Metro K Line stations along Crenshaw.
Four categories moved in Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw this April — two one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts, all pointing downward. The shape of the month is broad-based decline across both property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Burglary and motor vehicle theft both ran below trend on the month; burglary's trailing 12-month total is 38, down 34.5% against the prior year's 58. Other larceny tells an even sharper structural story: 186 incidents over the current 12 months against 344 in the prior period, a 45.9% reduction that reflects a multi-year shift rather than a single quiet month. Robbery and aggravated assault are also lower on the year — down 20.7% and 15.9%, respectively — while theft from vehicle, at 3.4% above the prior year, is the one category running counter to the neighborhood's broader trend.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 38 incidents — about 59% below the 93 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 107 incidents — about 46% below the 199 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 186, down 46% from 344 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 107, down 37% from 171 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
South Park
38 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw's 38.
Open page →Brentwood
39 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw's 38.
Open page →University Park
39 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw's 38.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw has spiked other larceny historically (17 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 52.9% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 17 | 52.9% |
| Robbery | 12 | 0% |
| Aggravated assault | 10 | 0% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.