Rancho Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Rancho Park is a Westside neighborhood organized around the Rancho Park public golf course and the Westside Pavilion (now a Google office complex). Predominantly small single-family homes on a tight grid; bordered by Cheviot Hills to the north and West Los Angeles to the west.
Rancho Park registered one notable signal in August 2026: a below-trend burglary count. With only one category moving, the month's shape is narrow, not broad. The rest of the tracked categories were within their normal ranges.
Burglary is the category that moved, and the 12-month picture supports it as a structural story, not just a single quiet month. The trailing 12-month count is 21, down from 32 in the prior year, a 34.4% reduction. Against that backdrop, other property categories show a similar direction: other larceny is down 26.7% (22 vs 30) and vandalism down 23.3% (23 vs 30). Aggravated assault moved the other way, 10 incidents in the current 12 months against 7 in the prior year, a 42.9% increase on a low base, the one category worth watching in an otherwise downward-trending month.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 50% below the 42 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Rancho Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Gramercy Park
21 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Rancho Park's 21.
Open page →Carthay
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Rancho Park's 21.
Open page →Vermont Vista
22 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Rancho Park's 21.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Rancho Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.