Rancho Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Rancho Park is a Westside neighborhood organized around the Rancho Park public golf course and the Westside Pavilion (now a Google office complex). Predominantly small single-family homes on a tight grid; bordered by Cheviot Hills to the north and West Los Angeles to the west.
Six categories moved in Rancho Park in April 2026 — four ran below trend in the current month and two registered as sustained multi-year shifts. The dominant pattern is a broad, structural retreat in property crime across nearly every tracked bucket.
Theft from vehicle, other larceny, and motor vehicle theft all ran below trend, and the 12-month totals reflect how deep those shifts go: theft from vehicle is down 54.0% against the prior year (29 incidents vs. 63), other larceny is down 57.1% (21 vs. 49), and motor vehicle theft is down 65.5% (10 vs. 29). Burglary follows the same direction at -38.9%. Aggravated assault and vandalism were the only categories to hold near prior-year levels — vandalism off just 4.2%, aggravated assault flat at 6 incidents in each 12-month window.
Notable signals 4
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 29 incidents — about 53% below the 62 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 62% below the 55 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 10 incidents — about 62% below the 26 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 11 incidents — about 73% below the 41 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 29, down 54% from 63 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 21, down 57% from 49 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Rancho Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Hancock Park
28 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Rancho Park's 29.
Open page →Toluca Lake
27 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Rancho Park's 29.
Open page →Atwater Village
26 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Rancho Park's 29.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Rancho Park has spiked burglary historically (9 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 44.4% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Motor vehicle theft | 13 | 38.5% |
| Burglary | 9 | 44.4% |
| Other larceny | 3 | — too few |
| Robbery | 3 | — too few |
| Vandalism | 3 | — too few |
| Theft from vehicle | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Rancho Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Rancho Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.