Rancho Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Rancho Park is a Westside neighborhood organized around the Rancho Park public golf course and the Westside Pavilion (now a Google office complex). Predominantly small single-family homes on a tight grid; bordered by Cheviot Hills to the north and West Los Angeles to the west.
Six categories moved in Rancho Park this March — four ran below trend as one-month drops, two registered as sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad, multi-category retreat in property crime, with vehicle-related and larceny categories leading the move downward.
Theft from vehicle is the sharpest signal: 32 incidents over the current 12 months against a prior-year total of 62, down 48.4%. Motor vehicle theft follows a similar arc — 10 incidents vs. 31 the year before, down 67.7%. Other larceny is down 52.0% over the same window. Aggravated assault is the one counter-move, edging from 5 to 6 incidents year-over-year, a 20.0% change on a small base — the only category running in the opposite direction from the rest.
Notable signals 4
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 32 incidents — about 48% below the 62 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 10 incidents — about 62% below the 26 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 24 incidents — about 57% below the 55 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 67% below the 42 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 32, down 48% from 62 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 24, down 52% from 50 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Rancho Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Pacific Palisades
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Rancho Park's 32.
Open page →Playa del Rey
34 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Rancho Park's 32.
Open page →Toluca Lake
30 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Rancho Park's 32.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Rancho Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.