Hancock Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Hancock Park is a Central LA neighborhood organized around Sixth Street and Wilshire Boulevard. A historic district of large early-20th-century single-family homes; anchored by the Wilshire Country Club and the Larchmont commercial strip.
Five categories moved in Hancock Park this March — three registered below-trend signals and two as sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is broad, multi-year contraction across property crime, not a single anomalous month.
Motor vehicle theft leads the movement: the current 12-month total is 19, down from 44 in the prior year, a 56.8% 12-month decline. Theft from vehicle and robbery both ran below trend as well — theft from vehicle down 59.4% year-over-year (26 incidents vs. 64), robbery down 42.9% (8 vs. 14). The two sustained-shift signals indicate these aren't single-month dips; the lower levels have held long enough to register as a structural change in the baseline.
Notable signals 3
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 67% below the 58 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 75% below the 103 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 8 incidents — about 71% below the 28 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 81, down 59% from 199 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 26, down 59% from 64 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Hancock Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Beverlywood
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Hancock Park's 19.
Open page →Lake View Terrace
19 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Hancock Park's 19.
Open page →Playa del Rey
18 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Hancock Park's 19.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hancock Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.