Mid-Wilshire Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Mid-Wilshire is a Central LA neighborhood organized around the Wilshire Boulevard corridor between Western and La Brea. Anchored by the Wilshire Country Club, the Larchmont commercial strip, and the Metro D Line's Wilshire/Western station.
August 2026 produced a single structural signal in Mid-Wilshire: a sustained downward shift in vandalism, the only category that moved outside the normal range this month. Every other tracked category, from robbery to motor vehicle theft, stayed within its expected band. One sustained shift across nine tracked categories is a quiet month by any measure.
Vandalism is the clearest multi-year story here, down 25.1% over the trailing 12 months, 290 incidents against 387 in the prior year. Aggravated assault shows the steepest 12-month decline in the data, 83 incidents against 118 a year ago, a 29.7% drop, though that move did not register as a structural anomaly this period. Theft from vehicle is the one category running above its prior-year level, up 19.0% to 382 incidents, and motor vehicle theft is also up 10.1%, two categories worth watching if the trend persists into fall.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 290, down 25% from 387 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Mid-Wilshire compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Mid-City
293 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Mid-Wilshire's 290.
Open page →Exposition Park
285 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Mid-Wilshire's 290.
Open page →Pacoima
296 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Mid-Wilshire's 290.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mid-Wilshire, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.