Mid-Wilshire Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Mid-Wilshire is a Central LA neighborhood organized around the Wilshire Boulevard corridor between Western and La Brea. Anchored by the Wilshire Country Club, the Larchmont commercial strip, and the Metro D Line's Wilshire/Western station.
Six categories moved in Mid-Wilshire this March — two one-month below-trend signals and four sustained structural shifts, all running in the same direction. The overall shape is a broad, multi-year pullback across property crime, not a single quiet month.
Motor vehicle theft is the sharpest signal: 92 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 245.85, down 49.7% year-over-year. Theft from vehicle shows the same pattern from two angles — a one-month drop and a sustained structural shift — with 184 incidents in the current 12 months versus 418 in the prior year, a 56.0% decline. Vandalism and other larceny are also well below prior-year levels, down 51.5% and 41.0% respectively; robbery, at 76 incidents versus 69 prior, is the one category moving in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 92 incidents — about 63% below the 246 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 184 incidents — about 58% below the 442 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 184, down 56% from 418 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 395, down 41% from 670 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 141, down 52% from 291 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 92, down 50% from 183 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Mid-Wilshire compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
El Sereno
92 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Mid-Wilshire's 92.
Open page →West Adams
92 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Mid-Wilshire's 92.
Open page →Valley Village
91 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Mid-Wilshire's 92.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Mid-Wilshire, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.