West Adams Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
West Adams is a South LA neighborhood organized around the Adams Boulevard corridor between USC and Crenshaw. Anchored by the historic Mansions of West Adams (a National Register district), Mount Saint Mary's University Doheny Campus, and the Metro E Line's Expo/Crenshaw station.
Three categories moved in West Adams this March — two one-month below-trend signals and one sustained structural shift. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events.
Burglary and motor vehicle theft both ran below trend this month; burglary's current 12-month total is 21 incidents, down 47.5% against the prior 12 months' 40. Other larceny is the sustained-shift signal: 63 incidents over the trailing year versus 123 in the year before, a 48.8% drop that reflects a multi-month structural change rather than a single quiet month. Aggravated assault, theft from vehicle, and vandalism all moved lower on a 12-month basis as well, though none crossed the signal threshold this period.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 21 incidents — about 68% below the 66 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 92 incidents — about 41% below the 156 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 63, down 49% from 123 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How West Adams compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Adams-Normandie
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below West Adams's 21.
Open page →Bel-Air
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below West Adams's 21.
Open page →Cheviot Hills
20 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below West Adams's 21.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for West Adams, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.